Next month, the 23-nation group of crude exporters will raise its allowable production output by another 400,000 B/D.
下个月，由23个国家组成的原油出口国组织将把允许产量再提高40万桶/日。
January 4, 2022 By Trent Jacobs
2022年1月4日，作者Trent Jacobs
Journal of Petroleum Technology
石油科技杂志
OPEC and its nonmember partner nations, known together as OPEC+, have agreed to raise their collective production by another 400,000 B/D for the month of February. In what has become a routine exercise over the past year, the decision made on 4 January means that OPEC+ is holding the line on its plan to return production to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022.
石油出口国组织(OPEC)及其非成员国(OPEC+)已同意在2月份将日产量再提高40万桶。在过去一年新冠疫情已成为常态化的情况下，1月4日做出的决定意味着OPEC+正在坚持其计划，即在2022年底之前将产量恢复到疫情前的水平。
Upon the news of the decision the US crude benchmark rose by 1.7% and was trading at $77.32/bbl. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was similarly up about 1.5% and trading above $80 for the first time since November.
消息公布后，美国基准原油价格上涨1.7% ，每桶77.32美元。作为国际基准的布伦特原油价格同样上涨了1.5% ，自去年11月以来首次突破每桶80美元。
The latest move to increase global crude supplies comes as the world grapples with a sharp uptick in COVID-19 cases thanks to the highly transmissible Omicron variant.
增加全球原油供应量的最新举措，正值世界各国努力应对由于具有高传染性的欧米克龙变种而导致的2019冠状病毒疾病案例急剧增长之际。
By next month, OPEC+ will have a required production ceiling of almost 40.9 million B/D—more than half of which will come from just two countries. OPEC member Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC ally Russia will have production quotas of 10.2 million B/D each.
到下个月，OPEC+的产量上限将达到4090万桶/日，其中一半以上将仅仅来自两个国家。也就是OPEC成员国沙特阿拉伯和非OPEC成员国俄罗斯，其日产量配额为1020万桶。
OPEC+ also emphasized “the critical importance” of noncompliant members to continue participating in the compensation plan which was adopted for those nations that failed to make good on the cuts they agreed to in 2020.
OPEC +还强调，不需要遵守协议的非成员国“至关重要”，必须继续参与针对那些未能实现2020年达成的减产目标的国家通过的补偿计划。
In May of 2020, OPEC+ began reducing its total output by an unprecedented 9.7 million B/D after it was apparent that the world was facing its first pandemic in more than a century. By July of last year, the global economy showed signs of recovering and OPEC+ responded with a new agreement to gradually reverse the cuts by 400,000 B/D each month pending approval by the group’s ministerial representatives.
2020年5月，因为世界显然正面临着一个多世纪以来的第一次大规模流行疫情，OPEC+开始以前所未有的每日970万桶的速度减少其总产量。到去年7月，全球经济显示出复苏迹象，OPEC+对此作出了回应，达成了一项新协议，在获得该组织部长级代表批准之前，逐步取消每月减产40万桶的减产计划。
Earlier in the week, OPEC voted to elevate Kuwait’s Haitham al-Ghais as its next secretary general. He will assume the role in August and replace Nigeria’s Mohammed Barkindo, who has held the group’s top position since 2016 and has now served his maximum of two terms. Al-Ghais is the deputy managing director for international marketing at Kuwait Petroleum Corp. and was previously Kuwait’s chief OPEC representative from 2017 to 2021.
本周早些时候，OPEC投票决定提升科威特的 Haitham al-Ghais 为下一任秘书长。他将在今年8月接替尼日利亚的Mohammed Barkindo，Mohammed Barkindo自2016年以来一直担任该组织的最高职位，目前已经结束了最多两届的任期。Al-Ghais是科威特石油公司(Kuwait Petroleum Corp.)负责国际营销的副总经理，2017年至2021年担任过科威特OPEC的首席代表。
Al-Ghais said in interview with Reuters that maintaining the agreement to gradually increase output is at the top of his agenda. “It’s in the wider interest of the industry and all the 23 countries that have signed up to this agreement,” he told the news agency this week.
Al-Ghais 在接受路透社采访时说，维持逐步增加产量的协议是他的首要议程。“这符合该行业以及所有签署该协议的23个国家的更广泛利益,”他本周对新闻机构表示。
Despite the moves to increase production, not everyone is convinced that OPEC+ can return all of its shut-in production to the market as quickly as it is signaling. Because of this, coupled with the perceived weakness of the US shale sector’s ability to bounce back, financial analysts at Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Blackstone, and elsewhere see a greater probability that the $100/bbl oil threshold may be reached this year or next.
尽管OPEC采取了增产措施，但并非所有人都相信，OPEC+能够像他们发出回应信号那样迅速地将所有关闭的产能重新投入市场。由于这一点，再加上人们认为美国页岩气行业反弹能力较弱，Goldman Sachs、JP Morgan、Blackstone等公司的金融分析师认为，石油售价门槛今年或明年达到100美元/桶的可能性更大。
总结：2020年5月，由于一个多世纪以来的第一次大规模流行新冠疫情的肆虐，OPEC+开始以前所未有的每日970万桶的速度减少其总产量。去年7月，全球经济显示出复苏迹象，OPEC+达成了一项新协议，逐步取消每月减产40万桶的减产计划。OPEC投票选举下一任秘书长Haitham al-Ghais表示，维持逐步增加产量的协议是他的首要议程。而下个月，OPEC的日产量将再提高40万桶。
原文来源于The Journal of Petroleum Technology,
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