The Omicron variant has spooked global markets and sent crude prices tumbling by more than $10/bbl since it was discovered in late November.
新冠病毒Omicron变体自11月底被发现以来，在全球市场内造成恐慌，导致原油价格暴跌超过10美元/桶。
December 2, 2021
2021年12月2日
资料来源：Getty Images.
OPEC and its non-OPEC allies, known collectively as OPEC+, struck a cautious tone at their latest ministerial meeting amid the news that a new COVID-19 variant called Omicron is spreading across the globe. On Thursday, 2 December, OPEC+ elected to stick to its gradual recovery schedule by approving a production increase of 400,000 B/D in January.
OPEC（石油输出国组织）及其非OPEC的盟友，统称为OPEC+。在发现变异新冠病毒Omicron后的全球会议上，他们在部长级会议上做出了慎重的决定，12月2日星期四，OPEC+决定坚持其逐步恢复计划，在1月份批准增产40万桶/日。
However, OPEC+ also said in a statement that the ministerial meeting will remain in session for at least another month to allow the group to "make immediate adjustments" based on the global economic impact of the Omicron variant.
然而，OPEC+在一份声明中还表示，部长级会议将至少再举行一个月，以便该组织根据变异毒株Omicron对全球经济的影响“立即作出调整”。
“In a highly uncertain situation, the best option is to stick with the plan. That is exactly what OPEC+ has done today," Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president of macro oils at Wood Mackenzie, said in a note following the meeting. She added that with the caveat of an ongoing session, OPEC+ has positioned itself to “react swiftly” if the outlook on short-term demand was to worsen in the coming days and weeks.
Wood Mackenzie负责宏观石油的副总裁Ann Louise Hittle在会后的一份报告中说：“在高度不确定的情况下，最好的选择是坚持这一计划。这正是OPEC+今天所做的。”她补充说，“在当前会议的警示下，OPEC+已经做好了‘迅速反应’的准备。”即便是在短期需求前景在未来几天或几周内加剧的情况下。
The combined OPEC+ quota for January production is now just shy of 40.5 million B/D. The next scheduled meeting is set for 4 January and the group has agreed to consider monthly increases of 400,000 B/D until the end of 2022.
目前，OPEC+ 1月份的总产量配额仅略低于40.5百万桶/日。下一次预定会议定于1月4日举行，小组同意考虑每月增加400000桶/日，直至2022年底。
On Thursday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contracts for January settled at $66.50/bbl, up nearly a dollar during the regular session but down 15% from a week ago. Brent crude futures were up 1.16% for the day and settled at $69.67/bbl.
周四，西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）1月份合约结算价为66.50美元/桶，在常规交易期间上涨近一美元，但较一周前下跌15%。布伦特原油期货上涨1%。当天支付16%，结算价为69.67美元/桶。
Despite the modest intraday gains, WTI has tumbled by more than $13/bbl since last week. Brent crude has taken a similar plunge of around $12/bbl. Both benchmarks are now flirting with prices not seen since August when the Delta variant became the dominant strain of COVID-19 in North America and Europe.
尽管日内小幅上涨，但WTI自上周以来已下跌逾13美元/桶。布伦特原油也出现了类似的暴跌，约为12美元/桶。这两个油价由于新冠病毒的影响都没有达到预期值，因为在北美洲和欧洲，Delta变种成为COVID-19的主要毒株。
Global markets have been rattled by the recent discovery of a new COVID-19 mutation that was met with travel restrictions to and from southern Africa, which is where scientists first identified the variant. The World Health Organization has suggested that the Omicron variant may be more infectious than prior versions of the virus. The new strain has since been detected in two dozen countries, including the US, Canada, and most of western Europe.
在南非旅游限制的情况下，最近仍发现了新型的COVID-19变异毒株。世界卫生组织已经提出，Omicron变体可能比之前的病毒更具传染性。此后，在美国、加拿大和西欧大部分地区等20多个国家发现了这种新毒株。
In a note issued after the OPEC+ decision, Oslo-based Rystad Energy said that a rapid rise of new COVID-19 cases as a result of the Omicron variant could spur new lockdowns which will have an immediate impact on oil markets.
在OPEC+发布的一份声明中，Oslo-based Rystad能源公司表示，由于Omicron变异毒株的影响，新的新冠感染病例人数迅速上升，可能会引发新的连锁效应，这将对石油市场产生直接影响。
In that event, the energy consultancy estimated global oil demand could drop from its forecast 99.1 million B/D in December to 97.8 million B/D. Things could be worse in January, Rystad said, noting that demand may drop by 4.2 million B/D from earlier forecasts to 94.2 million B/D.
在这种情况下，能源咨询公司估计全球石油需求可能会在12月由其预测的99.1百万桶/日降至97.8百万桶/日。Rystad表示，1月份情况可能更糟，并指出需求可能会在先前预测的94.2百万桶/日的基础上降低4.2百万桶/日。
总结：在COVID-19新型冠状病毒的影响下，全球石油行业受到冲击，石油需求大幅度下降。尤其是在最近的Omicron变异毒株发现以来，全球新冠感染人数持续上升，导致油价持续跌落。在做好疫情防控的情况下，OPEC+发布声明将逐步恢复生产，预计在1月份增产40万桶/日。
学术部 硕2020级5班 汪 策
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